Firstly, transgender people experience cross gender identification long before puberty which makes post-pubescent arousal a symptom of gender dysphoria and not its cause.
Secondly, sexual feelings for the opposite sex can interfere with that identification until the person figures out what their ultimate orientation might be which, for some, is decided post transition. Calling this target location error is completely erroneous since the person understands exactly what is happening to them.
What I surmise is that during the formation of a sexual being every aspect of that person's thought processes is carried through the transition into puberty thus creating a unique imprint that cannot be easily altered. In other words, passing through that doorway with whatever you are carrying will impact your erotic imprinting. That individual is then left to figure out their true sexuality by sifting through the contradictory misalignment of orientation and gender identification which is why pre transition some transgender people are asexual until they figure all this out.
I have also come to the conclusion that cross gender arousal does indeed have a large role to play in a decision to transition but only in the sense that it can retard the impetus towards it rather than accelerate it. Instead, the ultimate factor which outweighs everything else is the strength of the cross gender identification.
It is possible that my life would have been easier if I had been born a girl but then I might have made choices in life that might have resulted in less desirable outcomes. This is why I think today that whatever I experienced thus far in life is unique to me and I embrace all of it.
There is little value in seeing things otherwise.